Egyptian troops crossing the Suez Canal,
October 7, 1973

YOM KIPPUR, FORTY YEARS LATER.

Forty years have passed since the Yom Kippur War when in an unexpected move, Egypt and Syria, decided to attack Israel in one of its holiest days. It was the fourth major confrontation between Arabs and Jews since Israel’s declaration of independence in 1948. The overwhelming Israeli victory of 1967 and its overestimation of border security allowed this country to relax while its enemies’ desire for revenge was mounting. This surprise attack highlighted the vulnerability of Israel to the alliance of two of its strongest enemies. A vulnerability that was surmounted  - despite the initial strategic advantage of Egypt and Syria - due to poor communications between both that allowed Israel to recover and regain territory.

Although, once again, on the military level, Israel emerged victorious, the Arab offensive gave some prestige to Anwar al Sadat, until then under the shadow of the legendary Nasser who had died of a heart attack in 1970, and allowed the Egyptians to regain some of their lost pride. The world’s economy was not so well off. It was doomed by the serious crisis provoked by the cutting of fuel supplies from Arab countries to support Egypt and Syria putting pressure on the international community.

Four decades later, the Arab - Israeli conflict faces an umpteenth attempt negotiation under the auspices of the United States. In theory, the environment has not changed substantially, however, in practice, even though Israel is still surrounded by the same hostile countries, the terms of its potential enemies are very different.

After the 2011 uprising the Maghreb and the Middle East are subject of a political reconfiguration. Its results are still unknown and difficult to predict. Although the borders established after the First World War are the same, keeping them like this is increasingly in question.

The overthrow of the dictator Mubarak in Egypt and Ben Ali in Tunisia has not provided the immediate imposition of a real democracy in these countries. It has only started a difficult transition process which Islamists have tried to capsize. The electoral victory of the ruling Justice and Freedom Party, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and of An Nahda Party in Tunisia does not correspond to the actual support of the citizenry. In fact, the rejection of an increasingly strong opposition threatens to cause other serious conflicts with unpredictable consequences from civil wars to infighting as the coup in Egypt led by General al Sisi that has provoked the deposition of President Morsi.

Libyan Civil War, which ended with the death of Gaddafi, has also failed to pacify the country, in the process of political and institutional construction so far, clearly divided into tribal, ideological and ethnic ties where the Berber factor is gaining importance. Meanwhile Syria bleeds in a civil war with no sign of completion, Iraq remains mired in technical KO by the immobility of a corrupt government incapable or unwilling to fight terrorism.

From the point of view of Israel, the maxim of "divide and conquer" is being fulfilled without any direct doing. But this does not imply real benefits. The biggest change since Yom Kippur war is that the threat now, instead of coming from the Arab nationalist governments derives from Islamist organizations like Hamas in Gaza and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt linked to terrorism and, therefore less predictable. The uncontrollability of the Islamists means certainly a greater risk than well-trained armies.

Forty years after the Yom Kippur war besides the Arab - Israeli conflict, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Qatar for leading the Sunni Muslim world and their clash for supremacy in the Islam environment with Shiite Iran, the radicalism factor either as a Islamic political organisation such as the Muslim Brotherhood or terrorist branches such Hamas or al Qaeda and their allies, draw a grim and threatening violent denouement.