GENEVE II, A SOLUTION FOR THE SYRIAN CONFLICT?

While the blood of Syrians is shed fighting for their freedom against the government loyals in the multiple battlefronts, several meetings are taken place between the various opposition factions to prepare the next Geneva summit of 22 January. If the 9th and 10th of January, the Spanish government acted as host for a first meeting in Cordoba in order to assist in the search for binding agreements for all dissident groups. A few days later the Foreign Affairs Ministers of the "eleven" countries friends of Syria - namely, Germany, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, United States, France, Britain, Italy, Jordan, Qatar and Turkey – met in Paris to establish a common action policy and reaffirm a number of commitments to end  the doubts of the opposition, including the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad .

Finally, the Syrian National Coalition - which brings together various opposition groups – met in Istanbul on January 17 to discuss their participation in the meeting they call "Geneva II". In the previous days, discrepancies, that have weakened the opposition since the start of the conflict, arose again. Prior to its conclusion, there were several resignations of several members. Nevertheless, the decision to come to Geneva II was adopted by a majority of 58 votes in favour to14 against and two abstentions. Both meetings in Córdoba and Istanbul have made clear that the first essential condition for the opposition to end this terrible civil war is that Bashar al-Assad and his acolytes leave office  Something that seems so little feasible now as was at the beginning of the conflict. To this Bashar declared, had I wanted I would have given up from the beginning. We stand on guard for our country.

Taking into account the irreconcilable positions we inevitably feel a great scepticism about the effectiveness of the meeting in Switzerland. Expectations are many, the goal, one: to end the civil war. The chances of an agreement are, in the current state of affairs, practically nonexistent. Opposition calls for the end of the forty years Alawite minority regime. The Alawites will not relinquish power because they can not. Their surrender would be their destruction. Bashar's government insists on a political and negotiated solution. The opposition will not consent it while people remain able to wield a weapon. The hundreds of thousands of dead weigh like a millstone for the opposition while for the defenders of the regime are collateral victims.

And if this were not enough, the participation of various Islamist organizations, most of them terrorist, threatens to further fragment the territory into small fiefdoms out of any control.

Meanwhile, if the opposition gained ground months ago, the Syrian army has been recovering positions in a resistance exercise which has strengthened Bashar and probably has made him feel that with the Russian and Iranian support he can stand much more. The opposition needs international support and to get it from the “Friends of Syria” it must find a way to convince them of its internal cohesion. The aim is no longer the overthrow of a tyrannical and cruel regime, but also about the protection of the  lives of the millions of displaced Syrians that have caused the greatest humanitarian crisis so far this century.

What can we expect of this meeting? What seems predictable is that no effective agreement is going to be reached and that the war of attrition will continue. This will be the worst possible situation not only for the Syrian population but also for their weaker neighbours already suffering the first symptoms of infection. Lebanon, always on a tightrope, has been suffering intensive attacks in favour and against Hezbollah, an ally of Bashar’s government. In Iraq, the Shiite government of al-Maliki, indirectly supported by Iran, like Syria’s, is unable to quell the revolt of Sunni Anbar province, where the entry of terrorists related to al Qaeda threaten to plunge this area and spread chaos through the rest of the country. Jordan, mired in a severe economic crisis by falling tourism receipts, with a discontent population and overwhelmed by Syrian refugees is on the verge of collapse.

What would be desirable? A permanent ceasefire will only be possible with strong international intervention to achieve the cessation of Russian support for Bashar and Iranian interference. This requires the achievement by the opposition of a minimum consensus to ensure joint action. This would guarantee the "eleven" friendly countries that their support will not end on terrorist hands. Difficult? Very. Possible? Yes. Viable? Eventually the opposition must realise that only united they can win.